Rajasthan has alternated between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress in the last five assembly elections. Voters here haven’t elected the same party to power for two terms in a row. This is the Congress’s biggest advantage and BJP’s biggest challenge in this year’s assembly elections.
The Congress is upbeat over its recent victories in bypolls to two Lok Sabha — Alwar and Ajmer — and one assembly (Mandalgarh) seats. The seats were held by the BJP. In terms of assembly segments, this translates to 17 seats, including eight each in the two Lok Sabha constituencies.
The Congress hopes to carry the momentum into the state polls riding on anti-incumbency sentiment. However, it also faces a leadership challenge as people are unclear about who will lead the government if the party is voted to power. While state Congress chief Sachin Pilot is being credited for the party’s bypoll victories, former chief minister Ashok Gehlot enjoys mass popularity. The party hasn’t named a chief ministerial face.
The BJP won a record 163 seats in the 200-member assembly in 2013 elections. The party, however, is facing unrest among its workers and traditional vote banks such as the Rajputs and the Gujjars. Party cadres feel ignored claiming that chief minister Vasundhara Raje remained inaccessible to them.
After the bypoll losses, Raje started an outreach initiative and travelled across the state, first holding Jan Samvads (public meetings) at different locations and then launching the Rajasthan Gaurav Yatra to showcase the work done by her government. Rajasthan was also high on the agenda of BJP president Amit Shah, who held several meetings with party workers. Shah told the party workers to keep their dissatisfaction and other issues aside and work to break the myth that no party can win Rajasthan twice in a row.
Though the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has announced that it will contest all seats in Rajasthan, there has been little scope for a third force in the state. Non-Congress, non-BJP parties have never got more than 10% of the votes.
Former faculty member of the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, Manohar Lal Yadav said the BJP knows that its electoral prospects are not too good in Rajasthan. “The party is aware, after the rout in by-elections, about its poor show in the state. It needs more time to campaign; that is why probably the polling in Rajasthan has been kept to the last and there’s a gap of nine days between voting in MP and Rajasthan,” he said.
Rajasthan and Telangana go to polls on December 7. Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram will vote on November 28 will Chhattisgarh will have two-phase polls on November 12 and 20.
Main issues
Farm crisis: Rajasthan, for the first time, witnessed suicides by farmers following crop failure and low costs for the produce in the local markets. Farmers protested in several parts of the state and the police used force against them in some places.
Governance and accessibility: The election will be a test for Vasundhara Raje’s special focus on empowering women through social schemes such as the Bhamashah card meant to provide free medical care for the poor. The BJP has faced flak for the chief minister, senior ministers and MLAs being inaccessible to people.
Caste indifference: Four communities — Gujjars, Jats, Meenas and Rajputs —who together can decide who’ll form next government, have flexed muscle before the polls making several demands.
Key players
Vasundhara Raje (BJP): The chief minister is leading the BJP’s pack. She faces people’s anger in an election in which one of the slogans is ‘Modi tujhse bair nahi, Vasundhara teri khair nahi’ (We have no malice towards you, Modi, but won’t spare Vasundhara)
Gajendra Singh Shekhawat (BJP): The party MP from Jodhpur was Centre’s choice for the state unit chief’s post, but Raje stalled his appointment. Shekhawat was then made convenor of the election management committee and Amit Shah has chosen him to be one of the six lieutenants he is sending out to get a ground report that will form the basis of candidate selection.
Ashok Gehlot (Congress): The former CM is Congress’ most popular face in Rajasthan. He has been made chairman of the coordination committee for all election panels. Gehlot is seen as a political adviser to Congress president Rahul Gandhi
Sachin Pilot (Congress): The state party chief is credited with steering the Congress to three major bypoll victories in February this year. Since the 2013 elections, the party has won 25 assembly segments in bypolls under his leadership.
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