Rajasthan election: Times Now-CNX pre-poll survey predicts win for Congress

The Indian National Congress is likely to come to power in Rajasthan with a comfortable majority after the state assembly elections to be held in December, a Times Now-CNX pre-poll survey has predicted.

The opinion survey predicts 110-120 seats for the Congress in a bipolar contest to the 200 Assembly seats, 70-80 seats for the ruling BJP, 1-3 seats for Mayawati’s BSP 1-3 seats, and 7 for the rest, including Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Ghanshyam Tiwari‘s Bharat Vahini Party (BVP).

In the previous elections in 2013, BJP had coasted to power with 163 seats leaving the Congress a distant second with 21. Rajasthan has been alternatingly voting the two parties to power over the last 25 years.

The Times Now-CNX pre-poll survey predicted a 43.5 vote share for the Congress with an upswing of 10.4% from last time and 40.37 for BJP with s loss of 4,8%.

More than 65% participants expressed dissatisfaction over how her government handled the Padmavati film controversy, while 55.7% were unhappy at the encounter killing of Anandpal Singh, the gangster who had a Robin Hood image among the poor.

Despite the disappointment with Raje’s government, a majority of respondents expressed support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and were happy with his government’s performance.

Rajasthan goes to poll in a single phase on December 7 and the results will be declared on December 11.

The survey expected the Congress to lead the BJP in all the four regions – Harouti, Marwad, Mewar and Shekawati.

Agency CNX Media said it used its exclusive ‘Super 30’ methodology, interviewing 8040 people across randomly selected 67 constituencies.

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Rajasthan Assembly 2018: Hate crimes against Dalits and Muslims a major concern in the state

Last year, 55-year-old Pehlu Khan was lynched on a national highway in Alwar district by a furious mob on the suspicion of cow smuggling. The Rajasthan police acquitted six of the accused of Khan’s murder, while the victims were charged for cow smuggling.

Hate crimes have stained the map of Rajasthan through the sands of time. In the last couple of years, however, hate crimes have been on the rise in the state.

In July this year, Amnesty International, a human rights advocacy group, ranked Rajasthan at number three for the largest number of heinous crimes against minority communities. According to the list, the largest number of hate crimes happened in Uttar Pradesh followed by Gujarat.

This came in the wake of the brutal lynching of Rakbar Khan on the suspicion of cow smuggling. Khan, a resident of Mewat in Rajasthan, was transporting bovines when they were stopped by locals in Lalawandi village near Alwar, and brutally beaten. The case has been deputed to DSP Jaipur range and the investigation is on.

However, this is not a one-off case. This is one gruesome deed in a series of others, several of which might not have even been reported. Amnesty’s Halt the Hate website lists such cases and marked eight hate crimes in 2018 until July. These include a Dalit groom who was attacked by upper caste men for riding a horse, and a Muslim man who was beaten to death for not chanting “Jai Shree Ram”.

Rajasthan has seen at least 39 such incidents from September 2015 until present day. In fact, it was in 1992 that the state witnessed its first incident of violence against minorities – the Kumher Massacre – where 15 Dalits were killed in Bharatpur district.

Then, in September 2010, Hindu activists mainly belonging to the Meena tribe attacked Muslims, destroyed their property – their farmland, equipment, standing crop and granaries, were plundered, damaged or burnt. Muslims had to flee Udaipur in the aftermath of the incident.

To cite more recent examples, last year, 55-year-old Pehlu Khan was lynched on a national highway in Alwar district by a furious mob on the suspicion of cow smuggling. The Rajasthan police acquitted six of the accused of Khan’s murder, and the victims were charged for cow smuggling.

In yet another horrendous hate crime, Mohammed Afrazul, a migrant labourer from Malda in West Bengal, was hacked and burnt alive by one Shambhu Lal in Rajsamand district of Rajasthan. Shambhu Lal’s minor nephew caught the entire incident on tape and video footage of the ghastly crime went viral. Lal confessed to committing the crime in an attempt to prevent jihad and surrendered the next day. He was charged with murder.

In fact, in an incident, the Rajasthan police gunned down Talim Hussain in Alwar on the December of 2017 on the suspicion of cow smuggling. Although the state police claim it to be an encounter, activists say they didn’t find any evidence of counter-firing from the alleged cow-smugglers.

These incidents paint a grim picture of lawlessness in Rajasthan. Activists and minority leaders have accused the government of apathy and even shielding the perpetrators of such crimes.

Pinning the blame on “population explosion and frustration due to joblessness” Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje said, “It happens all over the world, that’s not something happening in Rajasthan alone and if somebody is trying to say that why wasn’t she listening and why wasn’t she doing anything… it is very difficult because if at 12’o clock in the night in some remote part of Rajasthan, something like this happens, I would have to be god to know exactly what is really happening.”

The ruling BJP government will have to tread a tightrope in order to woo the minorities who clearly seem disenchanted with the ruling dispensation. Otherwise, they might hand a point to the Opposition in the state.

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Rajasthan Polls 2018: Will BJP be able to overcome the deep-rooted resentment by Dalits?

According to the 2016 NCRB report, Rajasthan accounts for the third-highest number of crimes involving atrocities against the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs), with Jaipur accounting for more than half the number of such crimes in metropolitan cities.

An interesting statistic that came out of that report was that Rajasthan was the only state that disposed of 38 such cases using the method of plea bargaining. A total of 1,063 cases were disposed of by the Rajasthan police in 2016 for want of evidence.

This is not the only indicator of the growing resentment that the Dalit community has against the ruling BJP government in the state.

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court had read down the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, saying a preliminary inquiry would be conducted before registering an FIR against alleged perpetrators and that the accused will now have a right to seek anticipatory bail. This enraged the Dalits, triggering mass protests across the country.

The tremendous anger in the Dalit community of Rajasthan was mobilized into aggressive protests on April 2 and nationwide bandhs. According to The Caravan, 311 FIRs were filed against people belonging to the SC/ST community after April 2, and none of them have been withdrawn.

The incident may have reminded the community of the Dangawas violence of 2014. In May 2014, there was a dispute between the Meghwals (belonging to Scheduled Caste) and the Jats over a 15-acre plot of land in the Dangawas village of Nagaur district. The dispute escalated quickly into a violent altercation, killing five Dalits, who claimed to be the caretakers of that land.

At that time, Meghwals ran from pillar to post seeking justice, but in vain. In fact, 16 of the 32 MLAs of seats reserved for SCs are Meghwals. Yet, none of them allegedly lent their support to the community at that time, including the MLA of Dangawas.

Rajasthan’s Dalits comprise around 18 percent of the total population, out of which Meghwals constitute more than 50 percent. The Meghwals are concentrated in the central and western part of the state.

Meanwhile, the other half of the Dalit community comprises the Bairwas, the Raigars, and the Jatavs who are concentrated in the eastern districts that border Uttar Pradesh. Besides, more than 20 percent of the community is urban and comprises the entrepreneurial Khatiqs, the Valmiki and the Jingar sub-castes.

Amongst these, Meghwals have been the most vocal about their exasperation with the ruling dispensation, and are most likely to vote for the Congress. The voting patterns of the Jatavs is similar to that of their counterparts in Uttar Pradesh and they are likely to vote for Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. While the urban Dalits are more inclined towards the saffron party, the Bairwas are torn between the Congress and the BJP.

The BJP, it seems, has taken cognizance of the issue and is treading on the path of course correction. As a part of their outreach programme, the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government announced a loan waiver amounting to Rs 114 crore in September this year.

However, the Dalits are piqued with their scanty representation in the higher judiciary and education sector, and the saffron party will have to work really hard to earn back the Dalit vote.

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Rajasthan : Case Against Minister for Allegedly Promoting Enmity

A video has gone viral on social media in which Minister Dhan Singh Rawat can be seen as purportedly saying, “If Muslims can vote unitedly for Congress, then all Hindus can also unite and go with the BJP and make it win with a thumping majority.”

A Rajasthan minister has been booked under the Representation of the People Act for allegedly promoting enmity between two groups in his speech at an election rally last week, officials said.

A video has gone viral on social media in which Panchayati Raj and Rural Development Minister Dhan Singh Rawat can be seen as purportedly saying, “If Muslims can vote unitedly for Congress, then all Hindus can also unite and go with the BJP and make it win with a thumping majority.”

At the public meeting in Banswara district on Saturday, the Bharatiya Janata Party legislator had claimed that his party was a “protector” of the “sanatan sanskriti” (traditional culture)’ of India and termed the Congress a “party of Muslims”.

State Chief Electoral Officer Anand Kumar said the district election department had lodged an FIR and the matter was being investigated.

A case has been registered against Rawat at Banswara Kotwali police station on Monday under Section 125 (promoting enmity between classes in connection with election) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, Circle Officer Ghanshyam Sharma told PTI.

The officer added that investigation was on in the matter.

Days after Rawat’s purported comments drew criticism, state BJP president Madan Lal Saini clarified that the party does not discriminate on the basis of caste and religion.

“We represent every Indian living in the country. Development of each section of society is our slogan and we do not represent any particular community,” party vice-president and Rajasthan in-charge Avinash Rai Khanna said.

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Rajasthan polls: Vasundhara Raje to Contest From Home-turf Jhalrapatan

Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje on Sunday announced that she will contest the upcoming Assembly election in the state from the Jhalrapatan constituency in Jhalawar district.

“I have a 30-year-old connection with the people of Jhalawar. The people here have showered love and affection. I have done whatever I could do for Jhalawar and Baran districts,” she said.

Raje has been elected thrice from the Jhalrapatan seat in 2003, 2008 and 2013. She said although her focus would be to win all the 200 Assembly seats in the Rajasthan Assembly, special attention would be on 100 seats.

Raje exuded confidence that the BJP would form a majority government in the state once again.

She said BJP workers have created a situation that Congress’s PM-face Rahul Gandhi is forced to hold Assembly-level public meetings. “In the 2008 Assembly election, the BJP was eight seats away from making government in the state. The BJP had won 78 seats despite tough circumstances. Also, four seats were won by the JD(U) and the BJP dissidents. The Congress had won 96 seats,” the chief minister said.

“Of the eight seats, six seats were from Jhalawar and Baran districts. People of Jhalawar-Baran would not make any mistake this time and saffron would bloom in the state again,” she added.

Rajasthan will go to the polls on December 7.

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AAP declares manifesto for upcoming Rajasthan elections

HIGHLIGHTS

AAP declared its manifesto today in Jaipur
The rally was held at Ramlila Maidan
The manifesto was announced in the presence of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) declared its manifesto for the upcoming Rajasthan elections at a rally in Jaipur today.

The party had sought and received permission to hold the rally at the Ramlila Maidan.

The manifesto was announced in the presence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) convenor and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal who held his first election rally in Rajasthan.

The Aam Aadmi Party has already announced that it will contest on all 200 assembly seats during the upcoming polls in Rajasthan.

Media in-charge for AAP Gopal Sharma had earlier said, “Arvind Kejriwal will hold his election rally at the Ramleela Maidan in Jaipur on October 28. He will hold seven-eight rallies in Rajasthan in the run-up to the polls.”

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, apart from other known members, will be campaigning in Rajasthan.

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7-Party Front, Loktantrik Morcha To Contest All Rajasthan Assembly Seats

The front was launched last month by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda and consists of CPI, CPI (M), CPI (ML), MCPI (United), Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Janata Dal (Secular).

The Loktantrik Morcha, a seven-party alliance in Rajasthan, on Saturday announced that it will contest on all 200 seats in the upcoming state assembly and CPI(M) leader Amra Ram will be its chief ministerial candidate.

The front was launched last month by former prime minister HD Deve Gowda and consists of CPI, CPI (M), CPI (ML), MCPI (United), Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Janata Dal (Secular).

“We will contest on all 200 seats and Amra Ram will be the Morcha’s CM candidate,” a spokesperson of the alliance said.

“The alliance has been formed to give a new alternative to the people of Rajasthan,” he added.

All like-minded parties and leaders are welcome to join us, the spokesperson said.

He said a 15-member core committee, which will have representation of all the seven parties, will be formed to decide on the seat-sharing arrangement.

The Loktantrik Morcha members have a small presence in Rajasthan and have no member in the current legislative assembly.

In 2013 assembly elections, CPI(M) and CPI contested on 38 and 23 seats respectively. JD(S), CPI(ML), SP and RLD contested on 6, 5, 56 and 8 seats respectively.

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Braille-enabled EVMs, voter slips for the first time in Rajasthan

For the first time in Rajasthan, at all the polling stations across the state, braille-enabled Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) will be used for visually impaired people. Voter slips in braille script too would be provided to all the visually impaired voters during the upcoming assembly election.

“EVM machines with in-built braille script will be used for the first time in the election this time in Rajasthan. All the new M3 EVM machines are enabled with braille. Such machines will be in all the booths,” said state chief electoral officer Anand Kumar.

There are 51,796 polling stations and 4,36,125 persons with disabilities (PwD) voters in the state. Around 72,694 voters are visually impaired.

Braille is a system of raised dots that can be read with the fingers by people who are blind or who have low vision. It is a tactile reading and writing system used by blind and visually impaired people who cannot access print material.

“The visually impaired persons can either go to polling stations with a companion or they can go on their own. If they go on their own, they are provided Braille-enabled voting facility. The ballot paper is attached to the ballot unit and in the same sequence ballot sheets in Braille script are also made available in the polling stations,” said deputy chief electoral officer Vinod Pareek.

“The braille sheets are given to the visually impaired persons when they arrive at the polling stations. From those sheets they can identify which serial number to press. After that they can go to the polling chamber, where they can feel the sheet which is attached to the unit and press the button they wish to. The new ballot units have these numberings in-built or inscribed,” he explained. There are about 76,000 such ballot units, he added.

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BJP may drop over half of its MLAs in Rajasthan to counter anti-incumbency

In an unprecedented move, BJP is contemplating dropping more than half its sitting MLAs in Rajasthan to cushion its prospects in the assembly polls from the discontent against incumbent legislators. Well-placed party sources said 80-100 of the 160 sitting MLAs might be replaced in what could arguably be the biggest-ever political culling of incumbent MLAs belonging to any party.

The party move is also to send a message to lawmakers in other states as well as members of Lok Sabha about the risk of being dropped on the basis of feedback about their performance which is being gathered, apart from traditional channels, through PM Modi’s Namo app. The app is being increasingly used by people to give feedback on the performance of their representatives directly to the PM. “Voters could be revengeful as a large number of MLAs continued passing the buck and didn’t serve the electorate as per expectations,” said a source privy to the decision to replace a majority of sitting MLA .

Sources said the party will field young first-time candidates to stem anti-incumbency as new faces, who have been involved in serving the people for years, can water down the anger among people and assure them of a better performance. Performance is a major issue in BJP deciding new candidates but changing caste equations in the state are an equally important factor to replace existing MLAs.

The Rajput community, traditional BJP supporters, seems to be drifting towards Congress whereas the Meenas in eastern Rajasthan are veering towards BJP after community leader Kirori Lal joined the party recently and was made Rajya Sabha MP. Among the three-poll bound states ruled by BJP, the party is said to be struggling the most in Rajasthan thanks to the state’s over three-decade trend of changing the government every five years.

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Rajasthan election 2018: BJP eyes votes of schemes’ beneficiaries

The ruling BJP plans to reach out to beneficiaries of various welfare schemes to seek votes in the upcoming assembly election.

BJP state chief Madan Lal Saini told ET that the party has identified 51 lakh people across Rajasthan who have benefited from the schemes of the state government.

“Party workers will light up kamal diya (lotus lamps) at their houses simultaneously on October 21. This will spread good word for the government in the vicinity of the beneficiaries. We will form teams at booth level to carry out this activity,” he said.

The exercise is being seen as a counter to the Congress party’s mass contact programme which began on October 2. The Congress has told its workers to carry out a doorto-door campaign and raise donations besides apprising people about the government’s “failure”.

According to people aware of the matter, BJP national president Amit Shah has asked the party’s state unit to establish direct connect with the electorate and propagate the good work done by the government.

“District-level workers will be asked to target beneficiaries of various schemes such as loan waiver, crop insurance, concession in educational fee and also those who got government jobs during this regime,” said a BJP leader, who did not wish to be identified.

Last month, the state government had organised public dialogue programmes where Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje interacted with beneficiaries among Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and newly recruited teachers.

“The state government has given 3.5 lakh government jobs, waived loans of over 30 lakh farmers and covered 1.6 crore people under the Bhamashah Swasthya Bima Yojana (health insurance). It’s payback time for them,” said the BJP leader.

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