Madhya Pradesh Assembly election results will tell us more about 2019 than all other four states, here’s why

Madhya Pradesh has emerged as the most coveted prize to bag among the three north Indian states due to elect their new Assemblies this year. This is because Madhya Pradesh mirrors the big Indian story of agrarian distress, economic disruptions caused by demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax, and social conflict. Should the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) still win the state for the fourth time in a row, the Congress will seem a ship doomed to sink in the whirlpool of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Conversely, a Congress victory will have the party set sail its flotilla for capturing power in Delhi.

Among the three north Indian states, Chhattisgarh’s national significance is limited as it sends only 11 MPs to the Lok Sabha. By contrast, Madhya Pradesh has 29 Lok Sabha seats, just three more than Rajasthan’s 26. Yet Rajasthan has been relegated in importance because a Congress triumph here will be par for the course. Ever since the BJP formed the government in Rajasthan in 1993, the power there has alternated between it and the Congress every five years. A Congress victory, therefore, cannot be taken as a reflection of the political mood in north India.

By contrast, the BJP won 165 out 230 Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh in 2013, 143 in 2008, and 173 in 2003. More significantly, it polled 44.87 percent of votes in 2013, 37.64 percent in 2008, and 42.50 percent in 2003. In fact, in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s vote share ballooned to a stunning 54.03 percent, a rarity in India.

“In the aftermath of the fall of the Congress nationally, there are not many states where the dominance of one single party has been shaping so clearly. In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is not only kept out of power, but the BJP has also established its domination beyond electoral politics,” wrote Yatindra Singh Sisodia in Electoral Politics in Madhya Pradesh: Explaining the BJP consolidation, a paper he authored in 2014.

Based on the post-poll survey he conducted for the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi, Sisodia, quite significantly, added, “It (BJP) has also been able to spread its support base across social sections… While the leadership (Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan) factor that contributed to the electoral success may have limitations in the long run, the fact that the BJP has wider social base and that it is seen as a party that may perform better than its rivals, will surely remain more dependable factors in this consolidation.”Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Narendra Modi. AFP file image

Not only has the Congress been kept out of power in Madhya Pradesh for 15 years, it lags far behind the BJP. For instance, it polled 36.38 percent of votes in the 2013 Assembly elections, nearly nine percent less than the BJP. Yet the hopes of the Congress have risen because of the social and economic tumult in the state, making it believe that the moment is propitious to overcome the massive lead the BJP has over it. Only a Congress win or photo finish in Madhya Pradesh will provide proof whether anti-incumbency, of even indeterminate magnitude, has set in against Modi and the BJP.

Yet the task of beating the BJP in Madhya Pradesh is formidable. For instance, agrarian distress in the state has been grabbing headlines, mostly notably when five farmers died in police firing last year. Traditionally, the BJP is considered an urban-centric party. Yet, in 2013, out of 194 constituencies in the state where urban population is less than 50 percent, the BJP won as many as 132, against the 55 that the Congress won. These comparative figures show the BJP has roots deep enough in rural Madhya Pradesh to limit the outfall of the discontent among farmers.

The challenge before the Congress to eat into the BJP’s rural base can also be perceived from the perspective of caste. The largest segment of agriculturists in the state belongs to the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), which account for around 42 percent of the electorate. Chouhan is a Dhakad, an OBC community engaged in agriculture and constituting about 3 to 4 percent of the state’s electorate.

The BJP’s OBC base is formidable – 67 percent of Yadavs voted for it in 2013 as against 25 percent of them for the Congress. The chasm between the two parties was less when it came to the support of non-Yadav OBCs – 45 percent of them voted for the BJP and 35 percent for the Congress. Given that the Dhakads are not numerically preponderant, it can be argued that Chouhan’s OBC identity will not stem the BJP’s slide because of agrarian distress.

However, Chouhan has refrained from harping on his OBC identity, choosing instead to project himself as the “son of a farmer.” He has repeatedly projected the Congress as the party of “raja (Digvijay Singh), maharaja (Jyotiradita Scindia) and udyogpati (industrialist).” In this context, it will be interesting to see whether agrarian distress will drive farmers to desert one of their own fighting to save his chief ministerial chair.

Should the BJP’s support among OBC farmers crack in a state that is its stronghold, it will be to the benefit of Opposition parties anchored among middle castes. In north India, the gains will not accrue to the Congress, whose upper caste leadership structure has always shied away from courting the OBCs on the basis of their caste identity.

As such, in Madhya Pradesh, both the upper castes and OBCs have been railing against the BJP for reversing the Supreme Court judgment that was seen to have diluted the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act.

In 2013, the BJP won 28 out of 35 seats reserved for SCs and 31 out of 47 seats reserved for STs. The anger among the upper castes and OBCs could, quite surprisingly, adversely impact the BJP in the SC reserved seats. This is because in 30 out of 35 such seats, the OBCs and the upper castes together account for as much as 60-65 percent of votes. Should they decide to not support the BJP, its 2013 tally of 28 seats would likely dip.

Comprising less than 16 percent of the electorate, the upper castes have been die-hard supporters of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh – 57 percent of Brahmins, 60 percent of Rajputs and 43 percent of other upper castes voted for the BJP in 2013. In comparison, only 22 percent of Brahmins, 25 percent of Rajputs and 25 percent of other upper castes did for the Congress.

Is the disaffection of the upper castes against the BJP strong enough to propel them in decisive numbers to the Congress? The answer to this question will determine whether the Congress will continue to play the soft Hindu card, such as indulging in its own brand of politics over the cow and projecting its leader Rahul Gandhi as the janeu-dhari Brahmin. Madhya Pradesh could very well have the Congress redefining its self – and becoming a pole to which the upper castes, particularly Brahmins, could decide to flock.

In hindsight, one reason why the Congress did not stitch an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was perhaps because it feared such a decision would alienate the upper castes and OBCs-farmers. In 2013, 36 percent of SCs voted for the BJP in 2013, 33 percent for the Congress and 22 percent for the BSP. What the Congress could have gained from aligning with the BSP, it hopes to more than make up with the votes of the upper castes and farmers.

Yet it might become a problem for the Congress if the BSP’s vote-share among Dalits increases exponentially and the upper castes and OBCs don’t desert the BJP in significant numbers. In 2013, out of 57 constituencies having SC population of 20 percent and above, the Congress won just eight seats and the BJP a whopping 46. Then again, out of 80 seats in which STs constituted 20 percent or more of the population, the BJP won 49 seats and the Congress 29.

Much has been written on Madhya Pradesh’s economic woes arising from demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax. In 2013, the BJP polled 42 percent of votes of the upper income group, 46 percent of the middle income group, 45 percent of the lower income group, and 44 percent of the poor. By contrast, the Congress polled 27 of votes of the upper income group, 34 percent of the middle income group, 38 percent of the lower income group, and 44 percent of the poor.

In other words, the BJP was voted by as many poor as was the Congress, traditionally the principal recipient of their votes. Let alone the poor, in case the BJP loses substantial ground among the middle and lower income groups, the Congress would cite this as proof of the backlash against the Modi government’s economic policies. It could arm the Congress to mount an attack on the BJP before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Creating credible narratives in electoral politics is undoubtedly important. But Madhya Pradesh’s significance goes far beyond that – it will tell us whether the BJP has the skills to resolve the animosities its own social policies have triggered among its large support base; and whether it can pacify those who have been cut by its economic policies. On the other hand, the fall of the BJP’s impregnable fortress of Madhya Pradesh will recast Congress’ personality into a mould that will have an upper caste polish to it, apart from encouraging its leaders into believing that anti-incumbency has started to work against the BJP and that they have hit upon the right strategy to take advantage of it.

Disclaimer: RSS has been taken from their official website.

MP Assembly Elections 2018: Key factors likely to impact the election

CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government has been facing ire of upper-caste protesters, agitating farmers and is surfing against a tide of anti-incumbency.

Madhya Pradesh is scheduled to vote on November 28. The polls are expected to witness a tough contest between the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress.

The BJP government led by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is facing an anti-incumbency sentiment to some extent after being in power for 15 years. Chouhan has held the top office for 13 out of the 15 years.

MP will head to polling in a single-phase election, and the tenure of the current Assembly will end on January 7, 2019.

The counting of votes will happen on December 11 along with Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana.

Here’s are some of the key issues likely to impact the elections:

Anti-incumbency

While Chouhan remains popular and has maintained his ‘vikas purush’ image even after being the chief minister for 13 years, reports suggests that significant fatigue against the government has crept in.

In a state where the politics has been largely binary between the BJP and the Congress, a tide of voters seeking change of guard would be difficult for Chouhan to overturn.

Data from past assembly polls suggests that a large swing of votes is possible in the state. Such instances have occurred in the past, including in 2003 when the BJP stormed to power.

Upper-caste voters

In September, multiple districts across the state observed a complete shutdown in support of protests called by various upper caste outfits against amendments to the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities (POA) Act passed by Parliament in July.

The protests were called by upper-caste outfits including the new SAPAKS party, Rajput Karni Sena, among others.

Reports suggests that the upper-caste voters, who have traditionally supported the BJP in the state, may be drifting the other way.

Fearing this, a senior BJP leader sent an “SOS” to the party’s central command, seeking “impact creating” corrective measures “urgently”, according to a report by The Asian Age.

The leader said the party had to take measures to prevent backlash from upper-caste voters.

“The anger among the ‘savarnas’ (upper castes) is too deep-rooted to be contained by any small measures. It has to be big impact-making steps by the Centre to prevent them from landing in the fold of Congress out of vengeance,” a senior Madhya Pradesh BJP leader had told the newspaper.

Unemployment

The issue of rising unemployment continues to plague the Chouhan government, like most states in India.

According to data from the Labour Ministry, Madhya Pradesh had an unemployment rate of 40 percent in urban areas and 44 percent in rural areas in 2015-16. The overall unemployment rate was around 43 percent.

Chouhan’s government has come under fire for lack of job creation. The opposition has also targeted the BJP government over this issue and has been promising speedy creation of jobs, if elected.

Mandsaur and the farmer agitation

On June 6, 2017, police in Mandsaur fired at protesters who were demanding better prices for their harvest. Six protesters were killed in the police firing, leading to violent protests that spread to neighbouring districts. A day later, a local factory was torched by protesters.

The protests forced the Chouhan government to launch the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana (BBY) in October 2017, under which registered farmers would be paid the difference between the minimum support price (MSP) and a modal price. The amount would be calculated by taking into consideration the average price of a crop in the state and two neighbouring states.

Congress President Rahul Gandhi was denied permission by the administration to meet the farmers. This, coupled with the death of six farmers, created a positive image for the Congress and a negative image for Chouhan’s government, political observers suggest.

To mark the first anniversary of the farmer protests, Gandhi staged a rally in Mandsaur on June 6 this year. In what was seen as a virtual election campaign launch for the party, Gandhi attacked the BJP governments at the Centre and the state.

Chouhan’s popularity

Congress has also been trying to play the ‘soft Hindutva’ card by undertaking a Ram Van Gaman Path yatra and the party constantly portraying Congress President Rahul Gandhi has a ‘Shiv bhakt’ during road shows and public meetings. Congress, however, denies playing such a card.

Despite such attempts by the Congress, many believe that the election will not be fought on religious or social issues. The BJP believes people would vote on the basis of development work undertaken by the Chouhan government and its successes in the state over the last 15 years.

Other suggests the election will revolve around a central factor — if people will vote for or against Chouhan.

Despite being the chief minister for 13 years, Chouhan remains a highly popular candidate.

Disclaimer: RSS has been taken from their official website.

Madhya Pradesh elections a test of BJP popularity vs Congress resurgence.

The ruling BJP’s broad-based support in Madhya Pradesh shows signs of waning, but it is not clear whether the Congress can capitalize

Madhya Pradesh lies at the heart of India and will soon be at the heart of the nation’s politics. Next month’s assembly elections in the state will give the first indication on whether the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) popularity endures or if a Congress resurgence is imminent.

BJP has dominated the state’s polity over the past several years. This dominance was on display in the last MP elections in 2013 when it secured 45% of all votes—the highest in the state for nearly 30 years—and 72% of seats in the state. BJP’s vote share was 9 percentage points higher than Congress’s (36%) but it was far more successful in converting votes into seats. For every seat won, the BJP needed 92,069 votes, less than half of the Congress figure of 212,332.

BJP also had higher victory margins on average. Of the 165 constituencies it won in the 230-member assembly, the BJP had a victory margin greater than 10% in 92 constituencies. In contrast, the Congress won only 17 of the 58 constituencies with a victory margin greater than 10%. BJP’s victories were equally decisive in reserved and unreserved constituencies.

In Madhya Pradesh, scheduled tribes (STs) account for 21% of the population (compared with 9% of India’s population) and have 47 seats reserved for them.

In 2013, the BJP secured 31 of the 47 seats and, even in overwhelmingly tribal constituencies (more than 80% tribal population), the party registered significant victories.

One reason for this success could be proactive grassroots work in tribal areas by socio-religious affiliates of the Sangh Parivar. In a 2008 research paper, political scientists Tariq Thachil and Ronald Herring attributed BJP’s success in tribal strongholds across India to the Sangh Parivar’s efforts in providing critical social services in tribal pockets. These activities have not just increased BJP’s popularity but also promoted Hindu identity in these areas.

The growth of Hindu identity in a predominantly Hindu state (91% of the state’s population) could explain why both the BJP and Congress have made public displays of their Hindu credentials a central part of their campaigns.

However, recent events could threaten BJP’s prospects in tribal-dominated constituencies and elsewhere. The controversy over the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe (Prevention of Atrocities Act) and the differing stances of BJP leaders on the issue have opened a chasm between tribal voters and upper caste voters, as a previous Plain Facts column pointed out. While tribal voters seem to be dissatisfied with the government’s handling of atrocities against the marginalized communities, the BJP’s core upper caste vote bank seems to feel that the government is pandering to tribal and Dalit interest by refusing to dilute the Atrocities Act. Data from post-poll surveys conducted by Lokniti-CSDS suggests that a large majority of upper caste voters support the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, as in other parts of the country. Restiveness among them signals trouble for the party.

The other threat to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh is agrarian distress in a predominantly agrarian state. While farmers have traditionally supported BJP, pressures on income have led to agrarian riots in recent years.

The political impact of this discontent could be felt more in poorer districts where BJP has enjoyed relatively less support. Using Mint’s district wealth tracker, we find that the BJP’s vote share in the 10 poorest districts of the state was considerably lower at 39% compared with 50% in the 10 richest (more urban) districts.

The combination of farmer protests, SC/ST tensions, and general anti-incumbency sentiment towards a party that has been in power for the past 15 years, in theory, offers hope to the Congress. However, the Congress in Madhya Pradesh has been marred by factionalism. In a 2014 research paper, Shreyas Sardesai of Lokniti-CSDS attributed the party’s disastrous showing in 2013 to factionalism. A united front with a focus on improving their poor votes-to-seat ratio could revive Congress fortunes in the state and the country.

For the BJP, another resounding victory could cement its status as the dominant party in the Hindi belt and boost the morale of party loyalists ahead of 2019. For chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, a fourth term in power could also mean a bigger role in national politics in the years to come.

Disclaimer: RSS has been taken from their official website.

MP Polls : BJP launches ‘Samriddh Madhya Pradesh’ campaign

In a bid to reach out to masses in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, the BJP on Sunday launched ‘Samriddh (Prosperous) Madhya Pradesh’ campaign from here by flagging off 50 hi-tech vehicles designed as chariots.

The mass outreach programme is aimed at preparing ‘Drishti Patra’ or a vision document for the next month’s polls on the basis of suggestions received from the common people, a party leader said.

Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar flagged off the chariots, fitted with LED screens, sound systems and other equipment, from the state BJP headquarters in the state capital.

The chariots will comb all the 230 assembly constituencies in the next 15 days during which they would travel to at least 20 places in every segment.

The BJP has also released a phone number on which the suggestions can be forwarded either through WhatsApp, SMSes or by making a phone call.

Speaking at the launch function, Chouhan said his government had modelled various welfare schemes on the basis of feedback received from the common people.

“Because of this, we have decided to prepare a roadmap of a prosperous Madhya Pradesh on the basis of suggestions of the 7.5-crore people of the state,” he said.

The chief minister attacked the Congress for its “misrule” of the past.

“During the rule of the Congress (before 2013), people were forced to take temporary roads in their farmland for travelling instead of the main roads which were almost non-existent then. People had to spend nights on roads during summer season due to power cuts,” he said.

The CM also accused the Congress of pushing Madhya Pradesh into poverty through its policies.

“Every sector, including the education and irrigation, was in a bad shape at that time because of the Congress which had pushed this state into BIMARU category.

“We (the BJP government) lifted Madhya Pradesh from that category and turned it into a ‘Sucharu’ (smoothly run) and viksit (developed) state,” he said.

(BIMARU is an acronym for states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh grouped into the category in the past for their poor economic condition.)

Mr. Chouhan said Madhya Pradesh will become a prosperous state in the next five years, if the BJP gets the popular mandate for another term.

Madhya Pradesh will go to polls on November 28. Counting of votes will take place on December 11.

Disclaimer: RSS has been taken from their official website.

Madhya Pradesh polls: BJP launches ‘prosperous MP’ campaign

In a bid to reach out to masses in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh, the BJP Sunday launched ‘Samriddh (Prosperous) Madhya Pradesh’ campaign from here by flagging off 50 hi-tech vehicles designed as chariots.